Still in the centre circle with the MJO, but hints of a match with the September composite for phase 1 (at least for our neck of the woods!) in the coming week, so it might be showing signs of working its way back through the CoD in that general direction. Though the heights rises aren’t in exactly the same places, the broad profile is the same, good heights over Europe, eastern parts of North America and Greenland, low heights over the Atlantic and the Western US. Here are yesterday’s ECM46 charts for the same weeks, now the coming week and week 2. I posted them back then along with the suggestion that taken at face value, the trend raised the possibility of a better end to the month as tropical storms stall in the Atlantic, pumping up a ridge over Europe. These are the charts from 8 September for the 18th to 25th September and 25th September - 2nd October, week 2 and week 3 at the time. If heights do rise over Western Europe during the last few days of the month, it’s hats off to the ECM extended range forecasts. You are one of my go to posts and have been for a long while, always concise and well written thoughts that makes it easier for a novice like me to read and understand 👍 Here’s to the next 10 years, all the very best. Would you Adam and Eve it, apparently I’ve been a Netweather member for 10 years! Just want to take the opportunity to say a big ‘thanks’ to everyone who posts here, I have learned so much about all aspects of the weather from the contributions from everyone, it is a great community to be a part of. The regimes plot still shows a signal for blocking over Scandi (red) once the unsettled Atlantic spell (blue) is done, so I would expect the overall CET for September to be very high when the month is done and dusted, be interesting to see if any records are broken there. Looking a bit further ahead of an unsettled week next week, the ECM clusters have this at T192-T240:Ĭluster 1 here with 34 members heralds a return to warmer and more settled weather, whereas cluster 2 with 17 members stays unsettled.Ĭlusters 1 and 2 (totalling 36 members) continue towards something settled for the last week in September, not so cluster 3. By day 10, the pack is doing its job, digging deep, -18 to -20 degrees over northeastern parts of Greenland, and as the opposition tires, the opportunity for a more expansive game going forward. There’s the quick little offload from the passing Lee at 180h, bringing the UK and Ireland into the move. The second seasonal feature is the cooling of the polar region, shown here by the T850s, a clear and steady build through the park in general, with the occasional offload in our direction.Īt day 1, the zero degree isotherm being kept tight in the early stages. There is something aesthetically satisfying about watching the movement of the low pressures that the jet stream is directing, the first pulse directing the movement southeast from Greenland to the north of Scotland, the second picking up ex-hurricane Lee, passing it to the first low, that swings it down through the mid Atlantic, to bring the remnants of Lee through the UK and Ireland by the end of the week at day 6.Ī long way off, but the result of the modelled strengthening of the jet stream through our neck of the woods around day 9 is the deepening of the low between Iceland and Scotland to around 955mb. We haven’t seen that in a while, indicative of a somewhat more mobile phase. This too gets pushed along, with the ribbon passing all the way through Canada by day 9. No return of an Atlantic meridional pattern, though there is on the Pacific side for a while, south of the Bering Sea between days 4 and 6. A nice looking move, the jet stream running to the south for a while around day 6, oscillating north-south thereafter, with a further pulse of energy charging through the UK and Ireland by day 9. The first clears out the meridional pattern at the ruck and the second bursts down the middle spreading it left on the loop. Two pulses originating to the south of Greenland over the next few days. The first is an injection of energy into the Atlantic jet stream, any straggling remnants of meridional pattern quickly swept away.
Two standout seasonal features of the Northern Hemisphere weather in the week running up to and through the autumn equinox to be seen in the 0z ECM operational run.
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